Let’s analyze the dollar on a weekly chart…
Not only commodities, but most all asset classes have been trading inverse to the $USD. The dollar holds the key as to when the correction will begin. It has been holding $78 lately. There is a small likelihood that it will correct to $76, corresponding with the market rallying and SPY filling its gap. Again the charts can do this analysis much more justice than any words.
Either the dollar is going to break up through the downtrend line, hence a rally for the $ and a correction for the market, or the $ is going to break support at $78 and head down to $76 area. That would correspond with a higher push in the markets and commodities. The important thing here is to watch the move in the $ over the next week or so.
You can also watch UUP , which is looking good on a daily chart today if it can get through the 50 dma slightly above:
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About
Suzanne S. Hamilton is the founder and president of Legacy Asset Management Inc. and hedge fund manager of Legacy Capital Fund LP. Suzanne has been managing portfolios for 11 years and is dedicated to pushing the edge of innovation in her field. Suzanne’s more than eighteen years of experience in computer security and mathematics, have culminated in development of complex algorithms and proprietary software designed to automate the management of risk. After extensive research, Suzanne’s efforts have evolved from one based on a long-only strategy into the integration of numerous independent models supporting both a long and short strategy for global markets, commodities, fixed income, and currencies.
Suzanne often appears as a panelist at financial conferences and is advocating to evolve alternative strategies to be more liquid and transparent. She was a participant in the CalPERS conference of top women in finance, a panelist at the Global ETF 2009 Awards Dinner and Workshop, and was a panelist at the Inside ETF Conference.
Suzanne is the former CEO of SECURIX, Inc. and additionally has provided security services over the years to well-recognized firms and organizations such as Microsoft, IBM, the Pentagon, and JNIDS (Joint National Intelligence Development Staff).
Suzanne received both her BS and MS in Computer Science/Mathematics from The American University. She currently holds a Series 65 license.
Company website: www.legacyfunds.net
wow….spot on with that analysis. As at 22/09, its hit 76 and is hanging on for dear life.
Thanks — $76 is strong support. It may or may not hold — but the $ is going to set the next market/commodities trend whether that is down if support holds or up for the market if the $ fails. It is going to be a big move either way — but the $ has to decisively break support or hold. It is that simple.
Agreed. What are your thoughts as to whether it will break or will it rise ?