Legacy Funds

Liquid – Transparent – Alt Investment Strategies

Does a huge rally always mean the bear market is over?

Almost everyone is aware that the stock market crashed in the 1930’s during the Great Depression. What most people may not be aware of is that it didn’t crash straight down but rather had multiple strong rallies followed by several declines.

There are many reasons that our current rally is still only a bear market rally, but in the interest of time will just show a table from the decline back in 1929-1932. True the market lost 89%, but it was not in one big decline as many possibly envision. There were big rallies before moving on to lower lows:

29 to 32 chart

Courtesy sovereignsociety.com

However, looking at the rallies and declines in the above chart should get one to at least consider we may have some unfinished business on the downside ahead of us. Time to be careful, we are very close to the end of this rally, most likely 1100 to 1120 as maximum upside — though not a guarantee and we have to manage risk and play the hand the market deals.

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October 9, 2009 - Posted by | Legacy Funds | , ,

2 Comments »

  1. This is a great chart set. Thanks for putting it up. Guess the Nikkei probably had a similar pattern or so since 1989!

    Comment by Macro_Man | October 9, 2009 | Reply

    • Well — I haven’t checked lately, but the NAZ has followed the Nikkei, both the run up into 2000 for the NAZ (1989 for the Nikkei as you state) and the crash, and then the lost decade(s).

      Comment by Suzanne Hamilton | October 9, 2009 | Reply


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